Truth is a game of telephone. Passed down from person to person, post to post, believing what the last one said with no desire to verify it.
The acceleration of technology has led to the systemization of truth: think about it.
Level one: the internet. You decide (or are told) your criteria of “credible” websites, such as bloomberg, WSJ, fox news, etc. Any content from these is considered “true” as you’ve already deemed them credible.
You verify the information as true based on the preconceived notion that [outlet] is credible, despite them being one step distant from the source and reporting on it.
Level two: social media algorithms: These are primarily dominated by influencers, the replacement… or extension of credible media outlets - “citizen journalism” is the meta. Such as: Andrew Huberman, Joe Rogan, Walter Bloomberg, etc.
They have gained popularity for being “knowledgeable” in their field - therefore anything you hear from them is reputable. I mean just look at the size of their audience, it has to be. Assume the information they spread was picked up from [credible media outlet] first, making them an additional step removed from the truth.
Level three: LLMs: Large Language Models (ai) are essentially THE BEST at pulling popular knowledge from “credible” sources, such as Fox News + andrew huberman and regurgitating them. They have no concept for the “truth” , only reciting what is statistically the most likely to be accepted by the user.
They are consensus amplifiers not truth generators.
LLMs are a combination of Level one, Level two AND level three information with the “source” often being chat gpt. (see how that could become a problem?)
Understand that being “distanced from the truth” isn’t inherently bad, the same way a game of telephone can end with the original phrase reaching the end perfectly.
The scary (and exciting) part about level three is that LLMs are the new ultimate source of truth due to accessibility and ease of use. They will be treated as the all seeing eye and never questioned by the majority of society, because they’re USUALLY right but always perceived as right due to sheer popularity.
People will believe what LLMs believe because it's easy to believe LLMs.
However society’s relationship to the flow of information has generally always been this way.
People want to be told what to believe, how to think and avoid the “why” at all costs, because there isn’t always a binary answer in the “why.”
Most games and markets are generally like this: 1% of the population wins 99% of the returns by betting against consensus early.
> Top funds make 99% of the money in venture.
> Top KOLs make 99% of the money in memecoins.
> And the top traders make 99% of the money in stocks.
It’s how the game works (i made up this data but it's probably pretty close).
In a world where everyone has the same tooling/data and the information flow is optimized to the max, the only edge is utilizing intuition and learning the skill of thinking for yourself.
All I'm saying is now more than ever we have entered an era where the barrier for what to think is essentially zero.
All the opportunity lies in learning how to think instead.
The ones that are willing to do it in public and risk being wrong or looking dumb (BEFORE the rest comes to the same conclusion) have a tactical advantage over everyone else. It will always be this way.
Having a contrarian view and being right will always generate the highest returns in markets and in life.
Say: “everyone else is retarded and i’m not.” Believe it.
(im mainly writing this to myself because i had .5% of launchcoin weeks ago and sold it for a loss because i was being a little bitch).
Use the tools, love them, agree with them but never take everything you read at face value. Understand that most things are the way they are because they are that way.
Nobody has stopped to ask “why?” Or probe a different viewpoint.
The only actionable takeaway here is MAX leverage long intuition, self confidence, thinking, reflecting and writing.
Your future success depends on it.
Oh and being contrarian/thinking for yourself doesn’t always = being right. Kinda fucked but you’ll figure it out.
