Recap · July 31, 2025 · 36:23
Y22: Onchain is in TROUBLE, Trading NFTs, Best Trades and More | TG Podcast
The Signal
Trader Y22 describes an onchain market he considers bleak but reversible, provided a new narrative gives people a reason to dream beyond extraction. The practical through-line is less romantic: journal decisions, size from worst-case loss, cut quickly, and compound—lessons shaped by NFTs, gambling, a painful tax debt, and repeated mistakes.
Key Takeaways
- 01
Onchain needs a new spark
Y22 says current activity is dominated by “crime” and revenue math rather than organic narratives, but believes a fresh vertical could restore participation.
- 02
Risk starts with the loss
He sizes from the maximum loss he can accept, not the upside he imagines, and aims for small wins, small losses, big wins, and no big losses.
- 03
Conviction is not borrowed
Group chats help him discuss and test ideas, but he will not enter a trade simply because someone else is in it.
- 04
Journaling is part of the edge
Posting trades publicly adds pressure and feedback, while reflection lets him turn mistakes into a personal process.
- 05
Outcomes do not grade decisions
His gambling experience taught him that a good decision can lose once and a bad decision can win once; the long-run strategy matters.
On the Record
“We need some new meta, some new narrative, something that gets people to dream again like AI was.”
“For me the ideal portfolio history looks like this: small wins, small losses, big wins, no big losses.”
“Conviction cannot be borrowed.”
“The quality of a decision cannot be measured by its immediate outcome.”
The Breakdown
An onchain trader working his weak spots
Y22 says his main focus is onchain trading: watching Telegram and Twitter for participant behavior, reading charts, and tracking hot narratives. He journals both trades and thoughts publicly. He considers himself weaker at major-asset market structure and direction changes in BTC, SOL, and ETH, while momentum and narrative trading onchain are closer to his strength. His NFT history includes a top-20 Moonbirds P&L position and a red Mirami Flower PFP selected partly because it catches attention in DMs.
A grim market that can recover
His diagnosis of onchain is blunt: little is running besides “crime,” revenue-based trades, and SPX69. He agrees that the environment is unhealthy but rejects the idea that it cannot reverse. What is missing is a narrative people actually believe in; he contrasts it with the earlier promise of financial-system change and AI-era dreaming. Until that arrives, he says the market favors swing traders and mercenary capital willing to sell quickly rather than marry bags.
The account challenge and its rules
Y22 began a $500,000-to-$5 million challenge in December after completing an earlier $100,000-to-$1 million challenge in roughly three to three-and-a-half months. At the time of the interview he says the new account was around 30% of the way there after tripling in six months. He says there was no single kingmaker: the earlier run benefited from HYPE around its TGE and a much hotter onchain environment. His preferred approach is scalping and swings, controlling drawdown rather than seeking 5x outcomes.
Sizing from the downside
His risk-management method begins with a worst-case scenario: what can go wrong, what loss would follow a stop, and can he live with it? Only then does he choose size. That is the inverse of the common approach he sees, where traders imagine a five- or tenfold gain before calculating the damage. He says he cuts fast when a trade goes wrong. A relative loss in Pump premarkets hurt, but his rails meant he could survive; unclear communication after the ICO left him feeling there was no edge.
Ideas are social; decisions stay personal
Y22 talks frequently with smart friends and group chats because discussion improves a thesis, but says a trader cannot borrow conviction or learn by copy-trading. Public journaling makes reflection routine, increases accountability, and brings feedback from people watching. He is cautiously testing Zora creator coins but recognizes a poor personal record in low caps, saying he has historically done better in midcaps. He is also learning macro by doing it, not claiming it as the source of most of his profits.
Horse-racing odds, crypto taxes, and rebuilding
Before crypto, Y22 made money semi-professionally betting horse races. Pari-mutuel pools could misprice a horse relative to the collective's money, unlike sharper bookmaker markets; the experience taught bankroll management and probability. In crypto, he began with XRP in 2017, ran $10,000 to roughly $500,000, then lost it on BitMEX and discovered he owed substantial taxes because local rules did not allow derivatives losses to offset spot gains. He returned after DeFi summer, hit Injective well, cleared the debt, and says big 2024 losses later forced the risk-management process he uses now.
Process over the kingmaker trade
Y22 closes with advice aimed at viewers who have not “made it”: journal, reflect, learn personal strengths and weaknesses, then build a process that fits them. He says people should not force the one kingmaker trade that makes them rich. Portfolio building takes patience; in his formulation, success is not the starting target but the byproduct of process.
Distilled from the episode transcript · Counterparty Recap Desk
