Recap · July 31, 2025 · 59:42
Coyote: BEST On-Chain Trade EVER, Dark Truths of Trading, and More | TG Podcast
The Signal
Coyote explains an on-chain trading style built around oversized conviction, wallet-level sleuthing, and accepting that the market is coordinated more often than it is organic. He is unusually candid about the cost: the same approach that made an 800-SOL Gorbagana position work also produces regular blowups, including a 60–70% giveback from a strong three-month run. The practical thread through the conversation is less copy-trading than learning who owns supply, comparing likely ceilings, building context slowly, and using a real network for confluence.
Key Takeaways
- 01
Size and conviction cut both ways
Coyote moved from hunting tiny, distressed coins to concentrating size where he sees a liquid multiple. His 800-SOL Gorbagana buy below $6 million later found liquidity around $40 million, but he says this same style also gets him blown out repeatedly.
- 02
Supply tells the story
For Coyote, on-chain analysis is primarily identifying who holds supply, what they want, and when they might sell. He treats both formal bundles and apparently organic holder rotation as forms of supply control.
- 03
Comps set the ceiling
Before buying, he checks ownership, whether he is early or late, comparable tokens, and current appetite for those comps. Without an estimate of the eventual marginal buyer, he thinks traders cannot judge either entry quality or risk-reward.
- 04
Long-term holds need a dream
Coyote calls Takabu a rare longer-term hold because he sees a real cult, a team building lore, and potential buyers beyond crypto Twitter. In his view, a token needs a story a much later buyer can imagine.
- 05
Patience is the entry-level edge
He tells new traders to take many tiny trades, see thousands of tokens, and build context instead of firing large bullets early. Networking matters too, but he says it takes initiative and time rather than admission to a prestigious chat.
On the Record
“I think that onchain is a lot closer to a video game than it is a traditional asset market.”
“What you're trying to do with sleuthing is identify where's the supply, what is the person who has the supply's objective, and when are they going to dump on my head?”
“I think that the people who are kind of in this top 5%, top 1% who are making most of the money are people that you will never ever see on Twitter.”
“The best way to get better is to do it over and over and over again, which sounds like an oversimplification, but I promise you that is maybe 60% of the battle.”
The Breakdown
From Pepe watcher to conviction trader
Coyote arrived through NFTs around 2019–20, missed that wave, then watched Hopium's Pepe call turn from $5 million into a runner. He was early on Solana during the Myro era and built his book by finding neglected low-cap coins.
Now he takes fewer flips and more size where he sees a liquid multiple. He put 800 SOL into Gorbagana under $6 million because he thought the market undervalued an openly built chain; it became liquid around $40 million within twelve hours.
A strategy that also blows up
Coyote does not present the Gorbagana win as a repeatable recommendation. He has fat-fingered 250 SOL into an $80,000 coin and been dumped on, and says his approach would not work for most people. Slow markets fit him better because there may be one runner every few days.
The public ledger is the basis of his sleuthing. He describes on-chain trading as groups positioning for musical chairs, where wallet history helps estimate how long the game can last. His goal is to locate supply, infer its holder's objective, and judge risk-reward before selling begins.
Organic is a misleading label
Coyote argues that every rising coin has supply control, either a visible bundle or rotation into holders who do not want to sell. He uses SPX6900 as the latter case and Bonk-era tokens as examples of formal control. Rather than complain that organic runners are gone, he thinks traders should acknowledge the mechanic.
There is no hard method for entering before a move. Solscan pages teach patterns: exchange-funded wallets, bundle washing, and liquidity moving through Meteora pools. He may lose on seven of ten attempts, with the other three paying for them; tools can surface fresh or dormant wallets and liquidity flows.
A cult, a team, and a buyer beyond CT
Coyote's Takabu pitch makes his longer-horizon filter explicit. He is normally mercenary, but says a token needs something a buyer at five, ten, or twenty-five times higher can dream about. Takabu began as a rug, then its builders created a character story and a $250 children's book.
He sees the community reaching gambling Twitter, poker players, and casino operators beyond crypto Telegram. It can still fall 80–90%, but its long period near zero and steady community make it less exposed to an overnight rug. Threadguy adds that teams working a coin may be necessary.
Comps, crowded longs, and Pump.fun
The pair return repeatedly to the eventual marginal buyer. Coyote uses comparable tokens and past appetite to establish a ceiling; without that, he says, traders buy without an exit strategy.
Coyote then dissects his Pump.fun long. He expected sidelined presale capital and early buybacks to support it, stayed leveraged because he believed a $4 billion floor would hold, and was liquidated. He calls it crowded, says he should have noticed buybacks fade; uncertainty around plans, timing, cash allocation and Bonk's market-share gains made the immediate trade difficult.
Information flow is not a shortcut
Asked about legendary trades, Coyote highlights a roughly $3.1 million Fartcoin buy, a quick GME buy after Roaring Kitty posted, Pal's AI16Z position, and Profit adding into red Boop candles. He admires patience in drawdown and restraint.
His own learning came from being nosy in DMs and bouncing ideas off strong traders, not insider information. He names POW, Profit, Nim, Punter and Solo among his favorites, but says styles differ and many top performers are invisible on Twitter. For newcomers, the advice is small trades, observation, patience, and time in the arena.
Distilled from the episode transcript · Counterparty Recap Desk
