Recap · July 31, 2025 · 33:44
Magus: Longing $BTC, Losing 65% of Portfolio, Best Trades, and More | TG Podcast
The Signal
Magus traces a Bitcoin-first trading approach back to buying ETH at $42, learning from prop-shop veterans, and surviving a 65% portfolio drawdown in the March 2020 crash shortly after leaving his full-time job. Today he is long Bitcoin while it holds above $115,000, sees $150,000 as the next region, and treats most altcoins as conditional bets on Bitcoin's trend rather than independent investments. The conversation is also a case for patience, chart-based relative strength, trusted information networks, and keeping perspective after both losses and wins.
Key Takeaways
- 01
Early entry bought room to learn
Magus bought his first ETH for $42 in 2016, but says he did not become serious until 2019–20. Being early gave him enough breathing room to make mistakes and survive, while mentors with professional trading backgrounds helped shape his style.
- 02
The March 2020 loss reset him
After quitting his job a month earlier, Magus lost 65% in a day when a Bitcoin selloff hit an aggressively long portfolio. He regrouped, bought when $10,000 turned into support, and later moved some Bitcoin and ETH into DeFi as that market recovered.
- 03
Bitcoin sets the permission structure
Magus is focused on Bitcoin holding above $115,000 and sees $150,000 as the next region. He says altcoins may not follow Bitcoin's upside as reliably as before, but they remain tied to its downside.
- 04
Extension is not an automatic top
He puts the cycle around innings six or seven: later than early-stage optimism, but still potentially where the biggest speculative gains happen. Long sideways periods near major Bitcoin levels are healthy consolidation in his framework.
- 05
Use simple charts and strong people
His altcoin screen is VWAP direction plus relative strength on a multi-ticker comparison chart. For fundamentals and macro context, he consults people he has known and verified over time, while keeping the final decision his own.
On the Record
“Being early allows you the breathing room to screw up, because that's what we all do.”
“I've lost 65% of my money in a day.”
“When Bitcoin goes up, it gives your altcoin permission to go up. Maybe it'll go up, maybe it won't, but when Bitcoin goes down, your alt's going down too.”
“Your network and your friends in our space could be more valuable than any of the other things that you have.”
The Breakdown
A $42 ETH purchase and real mentors
Magus bought his first Ether in 2016 for $42 after a friend explained Vitalik and programmable money, though stocks interested him more at first. His trading development began around 2019, helped by friends from a prop shop.
That early arrival left room to make mistakes without disappearing from the market. He describes himself as old in trader years and says early entrants can survive the period where newcomers expect easy money and instead get their accounts kicked around.
The 65% day before DeFi winter
In March 2020, Magus had an aggressively long Bitcoin portfolio and lost 65% in a day as Bitcoin printed a roughly 50% down candle. He had quit his full-time job only a month beforehand, making it among the toughest periods of his career and life.
With leftover capital and living expenses set aside, he waited for $10,000 to flip into support, bought, then shifted some Bitcoin and ETH into DeFi. He missed DeFi summer but caught DeFi winter, estimating the plays produced roughly 4–5x while acknowledging imperfect execution.
Bitcoin first, altcoins second
Magus calls himself Bitcoin-centric and says most altcoins are speculative ways to express a bullish Bitcoin view. Bitcoin holding above $115,000 leaves the market positioned for a later-year trend, with memes, layer ones, and a few stronger alts as secondary setups.
The daily routine is often waiting, not frantic chart-clicking. He added to a Bitcoin perpetual position that day but mostly handled email, DMs, and a video project. He once put much more of his net worth into leveraged perpetuals; today he trades less and avoids leverage.
Late innings can still carry the gains
Magus sees institutional Bitcoin buying as real and looks to $150,000 as the next region, but places the trend around innings six or seven rather than the beginning. That does not make him bearish: he says the largest gains often come at the end, when conviction is broad enough for weaker assets to move.
He thinks crypto needs a new reason for people to buy alts, whether a new technology story or a recycled one such as NFTs. He is not trying to predict it in advance, preferring to trade it once it becomes obvious.
Sideways Bitcoin and a simple alt screen
His cycle framework uses VWAPs, which he describes as moving-average-like lines. A long sideways period after an advance establishes an accepted price: he compares the earlier $60,000 range with Bitcoin holding around $90,000 after its move to $100,000. Round numbers become practical support and resistance.
For alts, he wants every VWAP pointing up and uses a multi-ticker comparison chart, called the spaghetti tool, to see which names remain strong when Bitcoin moves. A coin strong on both screens qualifies; he does not start with fundamentals.
Networks, competition, and the pizza line
Magus says trusted friends can supply fundamental or macro context that he cannot assemble alone, but he makes his own decisions. Twitter is not enough to verify who trades well; humility and avoidance of absolutes are clues, while wallet and P&L sharing among close friends is the real check. He now trades primarily for the competitive game.
His closing story is a 2023 Gala long. With pizza arriving, he moved every sell order to one price tick rather than babysit the trade; someone filled it, and the exit became the coin's high. The joke became the pizza line, but his point is that tops and bottoms can reflect a large holder deciding to be done.
Distilled from the episode transcript · Counterparty Recap Desk
