Recap · August 4, 2025 · 1:21:20
Meet the BEST Crypto Traders of 2025... (Michael Paik & Ubermendes)
The Signal
Michael Paik and Ubermendes join Threadguy to compare the trading habits behind their outsized runs, starting with Paik's account going from roughly $300 to seven figures. The conversation moves from the psychology of holding through volatility to the AI-crypto opportunity, where both guests see agents and DeFi as complementary rather than separate trades.
Key Takeaways
- 01
A small account needs a plan
Paik says vague ambitions make it hard to plan a cycle. His own attempt to turn about $300 into something tradable led to one ETH, then a full-port meme-coin position he says became seven figures within a day or two.
- 02
Conviction has to survive volatility
Ubermendes argues that the people who catch kingmaker trades can hold through large swings for longer than most participants. Paik ties that patience to a thesis built independently rather than borrowed conviction.
- 03
Selling needs a reason
Paik distinguishes boredom selling, forced selling for liquidity, and selling because the holder does not know what they own. His point is not that every position should be held forever, but that exits should follow a reason.
- 04
AI and DeFi can meet at the user
The guests describe AI as a layer that could bridge a user's request and existing DeFi protocols: an agent could handle bridging, venue selection, and slippage rather than leaving every operational step to the user.
- 05
Being tapped in is part of the edge
Paik describes crypto as a fast market whose flow is easier to feel through sustained attention. He closes by framing 2024 as a warm-up and urging viewers to be ready for more liquidity in 2025.
On the Record
“I think you need clarity on your game plan, right? A lot of people come in crypto and, like, their only plan is, like, oh, I want to make some money.”
“I think the thing that truly separates who makes, like, insane jumps in port and who doesn't is that the people who really hit these kingmaker trades are people who just are able to hold a coin through, like, massive swings for a substantial amount of time.”
“At the end of the day, you need to develop your own thesis and conviction on whatever you're holding.”
“If you treat this like it's a hobby, if you treat this like it's a side project, you treat this as, like, your side chick, it's never going to give you the results that you want.”
The Breakdown
From $300 to a seven-figure sale
Threadguy opens with Paik's public run. Paik says he found about $300 of ETH in an old wallet in December 2023 after round-tripping the prior cycle, then concentrated on getting it to a meaningful base. He accumulated one ETH at roughly $3,000, full-ported an early Ethereum meme coin, and says he sold that position for a million overnight. He declines to name the token because the chart and its remaining community are still visible.
The argument for the big game
Asked whether newer traders should hunt safe plays or 100x outcomes, Paik says the answer starts with a defined goal and individual circumstances. His own objective is to shoot for the moon where liquidity is moving, but he also acknowledges the uncomfortable volatility that approach requires. Ubermendes says seeing Paik's trade live pulled him deeper into crypto and taught him how large the asymmetry can be.
Holding isn't passive
Ubermendes says patience through massive swings separates the people who make huge portfolio jumps, while losing participants often take a bad trade personally. Later Paik argues that apparent long-term holders are rarely simply logging off: they are managing their emotional state, asking questions, and deciding whether their thesis still holds. He warns against boredom selling, forced selling, and selling because the position was never understood.
AI as the next interface
The group turns to on-chain AI. Paik sees useful agents beginning with mundane friction: a user should be able to describe a desired transaction instead of manually bridging, finding a DEX, and managing slippage. He calls AI and DeFi intertwined, not competing sectors. An agent can use DeFi protocols while operating continuously; the caveat is that adoption may take longer than the technology's pace suggests.
Context, mania, and emotional detachment
Paik says prior-cycle context helps him recognize how far market caps can expand when a real mania arrives. He says he does not feel volatility in the same way because he has emotional detachment from his bags and a thesis he believes has not yet played out. In his account, price rises rather than technical merit often dominate attention in a raging bull market, a dynamic he uses as context rather than a moral judgment.
A flow-state sign-off
The closing advice is intensely personal. Paik compares market feel to basketball touch: after enough repetition, a player can act without staring at the rim, but time away means that touch must be rebuilt. Treating trading seriously, staying aware of the market's pulse, and carrying lessons across disciplines are his recurring themes. He casts 2024 as pregame and 2025 as tip-off, while Ubermendes urges viewers not to turn a broad rally into a tribal contest over one coin. Both guests present the message as motivation rather than a trading system: their examples center on attention, personal risk tolerance, and the hard-to-transfer context that comes from watching markets over time.
Distilled from the episode transcript · Counterparty Recap Desk
