Recap · August 4, 2025 · 51:57
The TRUTH About Crypto Trading In 2024... w/ Ubermendes
The Signal
Ubermendes joins Threadguy for a trader's view of a fast, attention-led onchain market: use tools to find asymmetry, stay liquid enough to respond to new information, and treat every trade as part of a feedback loop. His most consistent point is less glamorous than a coin call—independent thinking, articulation, and post-mortem work are the edge he is trying to compound.
Key Takeaways
- 01
LOOK FOR ROOM TO EXPAND
Ubermendes says his group uses alerts, socials, white papers, and websites to find opportunities with enough capacity to become meaningful rather than trying to play every new launch.
- 02
ATTENTION HAS ITS OWN TAPE
For a trade with no fundamentals, he says price action is a signal of whether the attention itself is alive. That makes these positions stressful and potentially abrupt.
- 03
LIQUIDITY IS OPTIONALITY
He wants to remain largely liquid late in the cycle, except for positions established earlier, because fresh coins and narratives can move faster than older thesis trades.
- 04
DON'T CONFUSE CONFIDENCE WITH CERTAINTY
He avoids calling himself the cycle's best trader, notes missed opportunities after becoming too defensive, and treats arrogance as a route to worse decisions.
- 05
ARTICULATION IS AN EDGE
Journaling, talking through a view, or sharing it publicly can expose repeated mistakes. For him, clearer language produces faster understanding and better iteration.
On the Record
“When you're trading fundamentals, price action is short-term noise, and when you're trading attention, price action is signal.”
“I want to be as liquid as possible at this moment except for the coins that I already positioned myself in.”
“Life is a feedback loop.”
“Nobody's going to trade for you. Nobody's going to make it for you.”
The Breakdown
From alerts to asymmetry
The conversation opens with a new AI-infrastructure trade and then gets practical about how Ubermendes hunts. He says his private group has developers build bots that flag volume or other signals, but an alert is only a starting point. The next pass is social accounts, white papers, and websites. He is looking for something with room to expand into a large valuation, not a sequence of small wins that merely provide lunch money.
The Luigi attention trade
Threadguy asks about a coin attached to the Luigi story. Ubermendes is still holding some but has reduced the position because he did not catch it early. He separates this kind of trade from one with a fundamental catalyst: if the asset is primarily an attention vehicle, the chart is also a readout on the attention. That makes it exhausting to monitor and leaves open the possibility that a new turn in the story produces a violent move either way.
A market that is speeding up
On the broader market, Ubermendes thinks the opportunity cost of sitting in inactive coins is rising. Many thesis-driven AI positions began earlier, in November, and he does not think investors are still equally early in them. He expects new opportunities to become more important and says participants have less time to formulate a view as markets and sectors mature. His preferred posture is to stay online, retain liquidity, and act quickly enough to research and adjust.
How he sizes the AI vertical
Threadguy presses on a large AI-sector outcome and asks how a portfolio should reflect it. Ubermendes distinguishes established leaders from lower-cap opportunities, but he is notably wary of the middle range. In his framing, a mid-cap project can be overtaken by a newer and more efficient version while capital is tied up. That is not a denial that projects there can work; it is a preference for remaining light on his feet while the competitive set changes.
The danger of the best-trader story
The interview turns reflective when Threadguy calls him one of the best traders of the cycle. Ubermendes pushes back. He says he has only been doing this during the year, is surrounded by people he considers better, and missed some generational trades after becoming too defensive. The important lesson is not an image of infallibility: seeing yourself as the best stops learning, while the market continues to offer feedback.
Thinking in public, thinking better
For Ubermendes, becoming a better market thinker is not exclusively crypto-specific. He recommends journaling broadly—writing, talking with someone, posting on Twitter, or running a Telegram channel—because articulation forces a person to examine what happened. People who keep repeating the same trades without reviewing why they sell too early or round-trip gains remain stuck, he says. He calls life a feedback loop: act, receive feedback, and change the next action.
Treat it as a career
His closing advice is deliberately hard-edged. The market is full of parasocial relationships and a fight for exit liquidity, so he tells viewers to take responsibility for their own execution rather than wait for confirmation or a spoon-fed trade. He recommends treating crypto as a career and operating on a longer horizon. The rare, life-changing trades are non-consensus for a long time; catching them requires attention, independent judgment, and enough discipline to keep improving.
Distilled from the episode transcript · Counterparty Recap Desk
