Recap · August 31, 2025 · 28:25
Spencer: NFTs in 2025, The Bull Market is NOT Over, Fixing IPOs and More | TG Podcast
The Signal
Spencer, now running Moonbirds through Orange Cap Games, explains why he bought an NFT collection at what Threadguy calls the sector's most unforgiving moment. His case is not a return to 2021's indiscriminate mania: it is a bet that a few durable IP businesses can emerge from the wreckage, supported by real revenue, institutional ETH exposure, and renewed cultural relevance.
Key Takeaways
- 01
THE EDGE STAYS QUIET
Spencer says his Blur activity included delta-neutral market-making and borrowing against CryptoPunks to lend ETH at higher rates. The best trades have constrained capacity, so publicizing them usually destroys their economics.
- 02
MOONBIRDS IS THE BIG TRADE
He frames buying Moonbirds as acquiring a company and a cultural account, not simply adding another NFT to a portfolio. The collection's history, art, and holder base give Orange Cap Games a platform from which to rebuild relevance.
- 03
PUBLIC MARKETS ARE THE BID
In Spencer's view, the current marginal crypto capital comes through ETFs and public markets rather than Crypto Twitter. He points to ETH treasury companies and public-company CryptoPunk purchases as an unusual source of NFT attention.
- 04
REVENUE MAKES RISK SURVIVABLE
Orange Cap Games' physical collectibles business had generated $1.5 million from its trading-card game since December, Spencer says. That revenue is meant to keep the company operating through a sharp crypto drawdown.
- 05
SELECTIVITY, NOT A REPLAY
Spencer does not expect peak-2021 NFT volume to return across everything. Instead, he expects a small number of projects with lasting relevance to separate themselves from businesses that cannot survive the post-bubble environment.
On the Record
“The grandest trade is not like the grandest trade is buying the company, right? This is like what I saw was the opportunity to absolutely leapfrog our company Orange Cap Games place in the space in a very significant way.”
“Where crypto is really fun is when it feels like everybody's winning. When it feels like everybody's winning, that's because more money is just coming in.”
“We are a company that generates revenue. We did $1.5 million in revenue off of the trading card game since December.”
“No, definitely not. That was disgusting irrational euphoria for no reason, right? And everything pumped for no reason. And that's not good or healthy for an ecosystem.”
The Breakdown
From fencing to Blur volume
Spencer opens with a compressed history: competitive fencing, trading-card dealing, startups, then crypto and a fund that was all cash when FTX collapsed. He bid that selloff aggressively and says the firm once represented about 5% of Blur volume. Much of that activity was not directional NFT betting: it included delta-neutral market-making and lending borrowed ETH, trades he says are not worth broadcasting once their capacity is limited.
The Pudgy position that paid
The fund bought Pudgy Penguins around 2.5 ETH when ETH was near $1,000, then added through the 3AC portfolio purchase. Spencer calls the eventual gain eight figures and notes that a large portion remains held. The success was exceptional rather than representative: he raised an NFT fund when Bored Apes were 80 ETH, and says the broad NFT return over that period was poor.
Why take on Moonbirds
Threadguy asks why anyone successful would choose an NFT collection with deeply underwater holders and collapsing sector activity. Spencer's answer is that owning the company is the larger trade. Moonbirds can give Orange Cap Games access, relevance and a recognizable IP without rushing into a fungible token; he also believes its European and Silicon Valley-heavy community is not principally day-trading for survival.
Treasury companies and NFT beta
Spencer divides crypto markets into bearish PvP periods and periods when new capital creates broader gains. He says the current inflow is principally public-market money through Bitcoin and Ethereum products. For ETH treasury companies, he argues, NFTs can be an additional form of ETH beta when holding more long-tail tokens is unattractive; GameSquare buying a CryptoPunk is the concrete development he highlights.
Building an IP that can stay alive
The operating plan begins with survivability: physical products and revenue should mean a 50% or 70% crypto decline does not switch off the office. Orange Cap Games has an Asia-based team making collectibles and is exploring what Moonbirds goods could look like, citing Hello Kitty's distribution story. The second task is expanding the IP and its opportunities, while making the bird identity more mimetic through the word “burbish.”
Long for the run, prepared for the crash
Spencer says Liberation Day's tariff shock, when ETH fell to roughly $1,500 before recovering toward $3,800, left participants shell-shocked. He remains net long but says a participant must be able to tolerate the run ending tomorrow while retaining exposure to a sustained upside move. Wider retirement-account inclusion, legislation and a token-bearing private company reaching public markets could extend the cycle; geopolitical conflict or policy shocks remain acute risks.
After euphoria, choose the survivors
He rejects the idea that ETH NFTs will return to the universal volume and revenue of 2021–22, calling that era unsustainable euphoria. The better question, he says, is whether individual winners can become as large. Using the dot-com aftermath as a comparison, Spencer expects many companies now to be exposed, while a few projects — with CryptoPunks the obvious case and Moonbirds a more contrarian one — may become enduring businesses.
Distilled from the episode transcript · Counterparty Recap Desk
