Recap · August 31, 2025 · 29:27
Coyote: Trading Memecoins in 2025, Prediction Markets and More | TG Podcast
The Signal
Coyote returns after calling Takabu near a $5 million valuation and explains why he still prefers rare, legible memecoin breakouts over constant low-cap trading. His next obsession is prediction-market infrastructure: the 2024 election proved demand, but poor funding rails, weak interfaces and missing leverage leave a wide product surface for crypto-native builders.
Key Takeaways
- 01
Outside flows make the exceptional coin
Coyote looks for holders entering from poker, gambling and other communities rather than a coordinated CT rotation. A token needs a story that travels beyond the same traders recycling capital.
- 02
The middle is his preferred entry
He would rather buy a validated breakout around $20–50 million than hunt every microcap. The greatest coins are rare, and paying up for evidence can still leave enormous upside.
- 03
Endorsement is becoming normal
PFP changes and public token alignment from non-crypto figures may grow as ownership culture matures. Takabu's organic spread among poker players is the model he points to.
- 04
The election proved prediction markets
Polymarket's 2024 performance established the market as an information product, not only a betting venue. That proof attracts users and venture capital looking for the next layer.
- 05
Better rails can unlock liquidity
Polygon onboarding and USDC.e remain too confusing. Coyote expects terminals, leverage, options and other products above prediction markets to improve access and deepen the underlying books.
On the Record
“The number one thing is outside flows.”
“The market is actually the all knower the all seer”
“The massive problem with poly market. It's incredibly difficult to use.”
“Leverage products can actually like bring liquidity and like make markets more liquid.”
The Breakdown
The Takabu follow-up
Coyote's prior appearance featured a Takabu call around $5 million; the token has since multiplied. He still sees solidarity around the coin and, more importantly, adoption outside CT. Poker players changing profile pictures and sharing an 800% winner among themselves looks organic rather than like a paid campaign.
Buying proof instead of lottery tickets
The discussion distinguishes constant microcap hunting from the once-or-twice-a-year breakout. Coyote prefers an asset that has already reached the $20–50 million range if it shows external flows and a narrative people instantly understand. Paying a higher valuation filters some fraud and execution risk while preserving upside in the rare Pepe- or Dogwifhat-scale winner.
A culture of public ownership
Coyote expects more figures outside crypto to endorse assets openly, including by adopting token imagery. That behavior is already normal inside CT but remains strange elsewhere. If it spreads, a memecoin can function as a public identity or community stake rather than merely a ticker circulated among the same accounts.
Prediction markets after the election
His attention has moved toward prediction markets because the US election demonstrated their product-market fit as an all-seeing price on uncertain events. Polymarket became useful even to people who never placed a bet. That passive information audience gives the category a broader acquisition loop than most trading products.
The infrastructure still feels early
Getting the correct version of USDC onto Polygon is too obscure for mainstream users, echoing the period when Ethereum users abandoned native interfaces for Telegram bots. Coyote watches teams building cleaner terminals and derivatives. If leverage and options deepen rather than merely fragment liquidity, prediction markets could become a much larger financial primitive.
Distilled from the episode transcript · Counterparty Recap Desk
