The Signal
Ansem joins Threadguy during a rough January pullback to make the bullish case for 2025 without pretending the tape is easy. His framework is technical and cyclical: Bitcoin has held a critical range, fresh onchain metas usually retrace after their first vertical run, and the assets that matter are clearer only after that washout. The pair range from AI and Hyperliquid to XRP, but keep returning to the same wager: a support test is a better long than a reason to surrender the cycle.
Key Takeaways
- 01
THE BITCOIN RANGE STILL MATTERS
Ansem sees the 90,000–105,000 area as the governing Bitcoin range and calls 91,000–92,000 the attractive long zone if price retests it. The December 20 wick remains the key reference after a pullback that felt worse onchain than the major charts alone suggested.
- 02
SELL THE FIRST VERTICAL RUN
His lesson from DeFi Summer is that a new meta that races to multi-billion valuations in its first months usually needs a deep pullback and consolidation. The durable winners become easier to identify after the first euphoric spike, not during it.
- 03
AI HAS OUTSIDE ATTENTION
Unlike a purely crypto-native trend, the AI trade has developers from outside crypto looking to build onchain. Ansem still does not think the eventual winners are settled, but sees real-time data and autonomous finance as a credible reason for AI to develop on blockchains.
- 04
HYPE NEEDS ITS NEXT CATALYSTS
HYPE is Ansem's largest bag. He sees airdrop recipients as current supply, but expects the EVM, more spot pairs, applications, volume, and revenue to change the picture once Hyperliquid becomes more than a perpetuals venue.
- 05
BEAR POSTS ARE RESEARCH BAIT
Ansem says his tweet assigning a 75% chance of a cycle top was deliberate provocation, not his base case. A contrarian but defensible post pulls out both reflexive reactions and detailed rebuttals from macro accounts he wants to learn from.
On the Record
“Bitcoin, I think you want long if it comes down into like 91K, 92K. That's what I was talking about on stream.”
“When you have a new onchain meta, the first run-up is kind of the one you always have to sell into if you don't want to be sitting in things for months afterwards.”
“Under 20 is free. You're not going to get an opportunity to buy HYPE this low, I don't think, ever.”
“One percent chance we don't make a new all-time high Bitcoin 2025, so we're chilling.”
The Breakdown
A painful range, not a broken cycle
Ansem opens on Bitcoin's 90,000–105,000 range. The Fed's hawkish tone had pulled markets back, but he says the support holding that range remained intact; a 91,000–92,000 retest was his preferred long. Threadguy admits he capitulated near the lows after onchain coins were hit especially hard. Ansem's point is that the major-chart support had not actually broken, even if the drawdown felt brutal to traders.
AI's first run needs a washout
Asked about AI coins, Ansem reaches for DeFi Summer. A new onchain meta that jumps from zero toward several billion in its first two or three months tends to pull back and consolidate; the first run is the one to sell if a trader does not want to hold through months of damage. He recalls Yearn falling roughly 80% in 60 days, while Aave was eventually a winner that would not have been obvious early. AI has more outside developer attention than earlier crypto-only metas, but he does not think its winners are settled.
Why onchain AI still makes sense
The pair briefly look at Worldcoin as a potential human-proof counterweight to AI, then argue over whether crypto AI can compete with centralized models. Ansem acknowledges the large companies are ahead, but points to established AI builders now looking at crypto. For him, a belief that finance moves onchain naturally extends to AI there too: blockchains provide real-time data and let systems carry out financial actions autonomously.
Posting bearish to find the smart rebuttal
Threadguy asks about Ansem's tweet assigning a 75% chance to a cycle top. Ansem says he was intentionally baiting a response to an earlier 25% top post, not declaring his own conviction. Directly naming an uncomfortable possibility brings out panicked replies, but also the macro people who can explain why it is wrong. One such response pointed him toward the refinancing overhang, the 10-year, and the dollar as risk-off signals; the exercise was research in public.
HYPE's supply now, product later
HYPE is Ansem's largest position. He says airdrop recipients sitting on life-changing unrealized gains create sell pressure, while institutions that missed Hyperliquid are still assessing a product they did not trade on. His bullish case depends on catalysts that had not arrived: HyperEVM, additional spot pairs, applications built on top, more onchain volume, and revenue. Until then, it is mostly a perpetuals venue rather than the broader L1 he expects.
Old charts and the final bull case
The stream later revisits old DeFi drawdowns, Arthur Hayes's role in perpetual futures, and the absurdity of crypto-Twitter celebrity arcs. In the final stretch they return to the immediate trade: if Bitcoin breaks 90,000 decisively, Ansem accepts the bearish outcome; otherwise he calls the week a possible turn. He groups Bitcoin, HYPE, and XRP among the longs, describing XRP as the cycle's retail-friendly breakout candidate after years below its 2017 high. The sign-off is deliberately simple: bullish all week.
Distilled from the episode transcript · Counterparty Recap Desk
