Recap · August 31, 2025 · 1:16:27
Ubermendes: The TRUTH of Crypto Trading, $PUMP's Future, ICMs and More | TG Podcast
The Signal
Ubermendes returns to Twitter with a blunt thesis for onchain markets: traders are the customers, and launchpads should optimize for the people already using them rather than chasing abstract onboarding. He sees Pump.fun moving in the right direction, thinks ICM needs time to mature, and believes durable memes, crypto-native IP, patience, and authentic personalities will outlast the short-term attention casino.
Key Takeaways
- 01
Build success stories first
Ubermendes thinks crypto has over-optimized launchpads, multi-walleting, and onboarding while forgetting the simplest growth loop: existing traders need wins worth telling their friends about. In his framing, better outcomes for current users create the new liquidity everyone claims to want.
- 02
Traders are the customer
Fees and platform revenue originate with traders, so he wants them to vote with their wallets and stop reflexively praising founders whose incentives are not aligned with users. He sees influential traders and creators as a bridge that can make launchpads respond to what their customers actually need.
- 03
ICM is early, not dead
He compares current internet-capital-markets projects to crypto AI in 2023: a promising label attached to many products that are not yet credible businesses. The narrative can become large, but it needs maturity before it resembles the stronger AI cycle that followed.
- 04
Patience is the onchain edge
As attention spans collapse, the advantage shifts toward recognizable assets that survive the first hype cycle and holders willing to wait. His preferred bets include globally legible memes and crypto-native IP built for audiences beyond Crypto Twitter, rather than the daily-runner game.
- 05
The moat is the person
Ubermendes is highly bullish on crypto content because financialization is moving onchain while authentic personalities remain scarce. In a world filling with interchangeable AI output, he argues that a distinct voice, sustained publicly over years, becomes its own defensible advantage.
On the Record
“I think that ICM is just a narrative. It kind of reminds me of AI in 2023.”
“If you can see something clearly and you have the patience to outlast those who are just chasing highs and trying to make up for lows, then again, it's just like high time frame onchain trading.”
“There's no moat anymore. The only moat is who you are. You're the moat, basically.”
“Just read a little bit, take care of your health, be outside, socialize, because these are going to be relics of the past at some point in the future.”
The Breakdown
Back online with a different mission
After stepping away for personal reasons, Ubermendes returns to a market he felt had become culturally exhausted. Crypto had speed-run launchpads, AI coins, and multi-wallet execution to maximum efficiency, leaving participants skeptical and isolated. His answer is not another mechanism but a coordinated attempt to create visible success stories for traders.
The customer launchpads forgot
Ubermendes argues that onchain traders are the source of every fee and every dollar of launchpad revenue, yet have accepted the worst side of the bargain. He wants them to stop treating founders as heroes by default, reject products that simply tax speculation, and use their collective wallet power to demand better alignment. He gives Pump.fun credit for listening, supporting its ecosystem, and directing revenue into token buybacks.
Pump, Troll, and the value of provenance
His Pump thesis starts with regained volume, the platform's provenance, and 100% of revenue going to buybacks, while acknowledging market share is never guaranteed. Troll appeals because the meme is globally recognizable without depending on a fresh attention spike; if it reaches scale on PumpSwap, it also becomes a fee-generating flagship for the platform. That fits his broader nostalgia thesis: as everything becomes frictionless and commoditized, people value cultural objects that survived harder, more memorable eras.
Escaping the attention flywheel
Ubermendes divides attractive coins into durable memes with provenance and crypto-native IP capable of reaching outside CT. He uses Tokabu as the second case: a gambling-adjacent character being built patiently as a household brand, without stunts designed for a one-day spike. The goal is not merely to catch attention but to outlast it, following the consumer playbook Pudgy Penguins demonstrated.
Outlasting the casino
The shrinking attention span is itself the opportunity. If everyone else is chasing highs, a trader who sees a coherent narrative and can hold through boredom gains an edge. Ubermendes says his strength is spotting and shaping narratives, not rapid-fire execution; he would rather back something aligned with his vision, explain that vision publicly, and help make it real.
What comes after the hangover
He expects memecoins to remain a timeless speculation vehicle, while ICM needs a longer maturation period and AI could return in its familiar fourth-quarter window. Compared with the previous onchain cycle, participants are more seasoned: his analogy is a wild party that sent everyone to the hospital and then rehab. For now, that hangover has produced more patient, cooperative PVE behavior, though he doubts the restraint lasts forever.
Content, identity, and staying intact
Ubermendes sees crypto streaming as an unusually open early market: as more finance moves onchain, newcomers will look for people who can explain it and lend conviction. AI will commoditize generic output, making genuine personality more valuable; the only durable moat is the person willing to show up authentically. His final advice widens beyond markets: read, protect health, spend time outside and with people who matter, and remember that good decisions come more easily from a good state of mind.
Distilled from the episode transcript · Counterparty Recap Desk
