The Signal
KookCapitalLLC argues that the Solana memecoin game has entered its extraction-heavy end stage, even as Bitcoin, Hyperliquid and stablecoin equities offer more compelling places to focus. He is still holding a few conviction memes and gambling in small size, but his basic prescription is to wait for volume and a new cultural reason for users to return rather than grind a dead market.
Key Takeaways
- 01
The chain needs a killer product
Kook says Solana won the alt-chain cycle because Pump Fun brought users and activity, while Hyperliquid built a successful product before expanding into a chain. He thinks generic L1 infrastructure is now commoditized.
- 02
Memes are a small-size game
He says eight out of ten new coins he buys go to zero and treats them as gambling. He retains exposure to a few established memes, but says this is not an environment where he expects new tokens to reach billions.
- 03
End-stage deal flow is a warning
A flood of trading bots and memecoin-launchpad pitches resembles late NFT-cycle projects promising launchpads and royalties. For Kook, both smart and inattentive people arriving to chase the same easy-money idea is a bearish signal.
- 04
Stablecoins made Circle legible
His Circle thesis is straightforward: Tether is seen as a remarkable business but was not investable, while Circle is an American, publicly traded stablecoin company with Coinbase exposure. He owns shares and writes options around them.
- 05
Bitcoin and Hype are the core
Kook says everybody should own more Bitcoin and calls Hype the best current trade other than Bitcoin for patient holders. In memecoins he names Fartcoin, Pengu and his longtime Mudang position, while stressing that he is not urging listeners to buy Mudang.
On the Record
“The only thing you should own longterm is Bitcoin. And I think memes are cooked. But I'm still in memes heavily, just only a few, right?”
“Eight out of 10 coins I buy just hold to zero and then I've made a couple trades here and there.”
“You wait for easy mode to do that. Like if you were doing that from September 2023 to January 2025, oh yeah. Was really easy.”
“Everything at the end of the day, it comes down to coolness.”
The Breakdown
A ghost town beneath an all-time-high Bitcoin
Threadguy opens on the disconnect: Bitcoin is at highs, Hyperliquid has been a trade, Circle looked obvious and crypto treasury companies are surging, while Solana onchain feels deserted. Kook says he is bearish on every L1 except Bitcoin, though he likes Hyperliquid. His contrast is product order: Hyperliquid built a killer product, then added chain infrastructure, whereas other chains build an economy first and hope products and users arrive.
Pump's success and Solana's burden
In Kook's view, Pump Fun was Solana's killer app, funneling capital into memecoins and helping the chain's token. But he says that success also brings permanent selling pressure because successful app operators may not reinvest their SOL proceeds into the ecosystem. He expects SOL can trade higher, but sees the meme era as essentially over. His remaining meme exposure is concentrated in legacy names such as Fartcoin, Pengu, Mog and Mudang rather than fresh launches.
Gambling, not a full-time market
Kook says he cut size long ago and now apes rugs for entertainment; eight of ten purchases go to zero. USDU was his last sizeable trade, but he does not think conditions support billion-dollar outcomes. He compares the period to spring 2022 for NFTs: before another wealth-creation meta, the market may need to get worse and bring in a new form of demand. Launchpads that let anyone rapidly issue tokens repeat extraction and rug dynamics.
Stocks replace the daily grind
Rather than try to earn every day in crypto, he says he is watching, trading a little and spending more time in stocks. He flipped Cantor Equity Partners, Kindly MD and an Ethereum-linked treasury vehicle, while calling MicroStrategy the treasury company worth holding. His larger equity conviction is Circle: since investors could not buy Tether, he viewed the second-largest stablecoin, its American company status and Coinbase partnership as enough of a practical thesis without modeling every ratio.
Circle options and a Plasma allocation
Kook holds Circle shares and says he wrote calls during its first weeks of trading, prepared to sell more if it returns above $300. He calls it a long-term position but distinguishes that from the kind of fast trade most crypto Twitter participants seek. He also describes depositing stablecoins for Plasma's allocation process through Echo: the lockup offers access to a future token purchase at a favorable price, though he does not claim to understand it well enough to call it a long-term hold.
Casino sponsorships and saturated referrals
He says Luck.io paid him less than six figures for roughly two weeks, before concerns that games were no longer provably fair coincided with the badge being removed. Even apart from that episode, he did not like promoting a casino after receiving comments from people describing gambling addiction. The pair then returns to bot referrals: Kook credits Axiom's competitive product, but says the market's saturation and the arrival of endless new bot pitches reinforce his sense that the easy phase has passed.
Wait for volume, then watch the cultural trade
Kook says real risk-on participation requires volume and people returning with new money; Pump's token launch could briefly supply that and he expects Pump eventually may want its own chain. He recalls getting serious about SOL when he recognized its early community as a kind of religion, then summarizes the cyclical trade as noticing what feels culturally cool before it peaks. He is content to round-trip Mudang because he loves the hippo, but closes on a less sentimental call: stake Hype or own Bitcoin for the longer horizon.
Distilled from the episode transcript · Counterparty Recap Desk
