Essay · July 31, 2025 · 24:56
ShockedJS: BEST Trading Strategies Right Now, PUMP vs BONK, and More |
The Signal
Shocked founder JS breaks down Pump.fun's loss of Solana launchpad share to LetsBonk.fun and the trading styles still working onchain. Pump can recover, he argues, but only by moving quickly, using its treasury to manufacture major winners, and rebuilding sentiment before any airdrop; for traders, patience, constant readiness, and a strategy matched to portfolio size matter more than forcing action.
Key Takeaways
- 01
Pump can still buy a comeback
JS sold his ICO position after the launch bounce but thinks Pump.fun has enough capital to restore market share. It must inject liquidity into promising launches and create runners before BONK's network effects become permanent.
- 02
Volume decides loyalty
Traders will use whichever launchpad produces profitable markets. BONK's team, buybacks, visible figureheads, and willingness to support ecosystem coins currently create that perception better than Pump.
- 03
Do not airdrop into bad sentiment
An immediate Pump airdrop would likely be sold into a falling chart, while adding trading requirements would frustrate users. JS would first create winners and restore enthusiasm so recipients might recycle value into the ecosystem.
- 04
Portfolio size changes the playbook
Smaller traders benefit from monitoring new pairs, strong group chats, and being ready around the clock without constantly entering positions. Larger traders can wait for fewer, higher-conviction swings.
- 05
Compounding takes years
Most admired onchain traders spent three or four years or longer building skill and capital. JS tells new participants to reject the deadline of making it within one cycle.
On the Record
“At the end of the day, everyone here is just trying to make money trading. So they're going to go where the volume is.”
“If people get in the coin and it's going up in price, nobody really cares why or how it's going up as long as they're making money.”
“Take things slow and understand it's a very long, long-term game. Lots of ups and downs along the way.”
The Breakdown
A bullish Pump trade exits early
JS entered Pump.fun's $4 billion ICO heavily and expected the token to race toward a $10–12 billion valuation. He added near 5.2 on the launch dip, then sold around 5.5–5.6 as the price action weakened. He is not currently interested in re-entering the main token, partly because he avoids double-dipping after a completed trade, but would buy ecosystem winners if the trend returns.
BONK flips the launchpad market
Pump.fun's share reportedly moved from roughly 75% to 25% almost overnight while LetsBonk.fun took the reverse position and held it. A new narrative may launch first on Pump and reach $500,000 or $1 million, only for a BONK version to copy the theme and drain its attention. BONK reinforces the loop with revenue-funded buys, multiple active team members, and public figures embedded in trader chats.
The inorganic runner strategy
To reverse the pattern, JS thinks Pump must identify a strong narrative early, acquire supply, inject several million dollars if necessary, and push a coin high enough to prove its platform can still create wealth. Traders will not object to inorganic support while their positions rise. The company has ample resources, but the window may be measured in weeks rather than months.
Sentiment before the airdrop
An airdrop creates a dilemma: release it during a downtrend and recipients sell, or impose activity requirements and anger users. JS believes the market overstates the airdrop itself. Pump's decisive need is volume and visible runners; after confidence improves, an airdrop can become new trading capital rather than an exit.
Where JS is putting risk
He holds Annie after buying about 1% of supply near a $30–35 million valuation and has taken a sizable USELESS swing. Believe's Launchcoin ecosystem is different: repeated rugs and a breakdown below a long range leave him uninterested in new pairs there. Streamer coins also lack an obvious valuation framework unless a risk-on market or genuinely large celebrity creates exceptional demand.
Consistency versus home runs
JS separates always-active traders such as Cupsey, whose style can place consistently on leaderboards, from size traders such as Pow and Profit who wait for occasional home runs. He identifies with the second group and seeks confirmation from traders including Cooker. Neither approach is universally best; the relevant factors are capital, temperament, and whether the market is producing broad risk-on runners.
Advice for the smaller account
For a small portfolio, JS recommends staying informed around the clock, joining useful group chats, and remaining ready without feeling compelled to trade continuously. A major coin can appear at any hour, so preparation preserves optionality. More broadly, he tells newcomers to abandon a three-month deadline: the people with extraordinary results generally spent years in the market, and internet-native opportunities remain large enough for patient compounding to change a life.
Distilled from the episode transcript · Counterparty Recap Desk
